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Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook – 08.08.2020Price Action Analysis: The present scenario in Nifty reminds me of a paradigm MOB - Make or Break situation. The previous week price bar structure was a Bearish SKR. On Monday price opened at 11057 and recored a low 10882 breaking the low of previous two weeks. But the low of Monday was protected throughout the current week and price advanced making higher low and higher high daily price bar pattern (up bars) finally to close at 11214. The current week price bar made a new low (10882) breaking the previous week low but, closed (11214) above the previous two weeks close (11074 and 11194). As a result of the present price action the current price bar structure nomenclature is Bullish DKR. A Bullish DKR price bar preceded by a Bearish SKR price bar reflects a tug of war between the buyer and sellers. The question in the mind of every trader is that if a tug of war exists between bulls and the bears, then who will win the battle? As a result of the present price action, the current price bar structure nomenclature is MOB. With the present price structure MOB, the price action in the upcoming week can result into either of the following 3 scenarios. Scenario 1: A Bullish expectation can be formed if price breaks the high of the Bullish DKR price bar (11257) without violating the low (10882). Price breaking the high without violating the low of Bullish DKR is just an indication but the confirmation for the Bullish expectation is only when price surpasses the high of Bearish SKR at 11342. Scenario 2: A Bearish expectation and confirmation will come into action if price breaks the low of Bullish DKR price (10882) without surpassing the high of Bullish DKR (11257). Scenario 3: A Neutral expectation will come into action if price neither breaks the high of Bearish SKR (11342) nor the low of Bullish DKR (10822). With a neutral expectation it is always better to stay on sidelines. With a MOB in place there is a high probability that price action can result in false breakouts near the support and resistance zone. One should always pay special attention and assess the mass sentiment of the heterogeneous group rather than just looking at patterns.On a daily time frame price action formed an Inside bar on Friday. The prior bar, the bar before the inside bar, is referred to as the “Mother Bar”.With the completion of an inside bar one can observe that price neither surpassed the high of mother bar nor violated the low of the preceding bar indicating indecision. Inside Bar also indicate that the prevailing momentum has dissipated because buyers and sellers are equally matched and have no conviction. An Inside Bar usually represents market indecision. In terms of demand and supply, an Inside Bar indicates that, demand and supply are in state of equilibrium and hence a period of consolidation. With an Inside Bar we neither have a Bullish nor a Bearish expectation and hence form a neutral expectation. If price surpasses and close above the high of the mother bar then we form a Bullish Expectation and if price breaks and close below the low of mother bar then we form a Bearish expectation. With this detailed price action analysis let’s just follow the foot prints of price. For trading decision one need to wait for a suitable Low Risk High Probability trade opportunities. The current weekly volatility decreased to 1.4 compared to previous weekly volatility of 2. The probable weekly returns is of 162 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 94 points. Price is trading within the zone of, January quarterly range resistance zone 11201 and March quarterly resistance zone 11178. Stock Market Seasonality August 8 marks a very important date according to seasonality. The day is considered as a minor seasonal date which is halfway between the major seasonal levels of June 22 and September 23. On this day price action formed an Inside Bar and hence the high and low of the mother bar will be of utmost importance in determining the future price action. Trade Plan The point of control of Nifty Spot for the upcoming week is in the zone of 11069. Currently price is trading in the mid zone of minor resistance zone at 11163 and major resistance zone at 11257. Price slipping below the minor resistance at 11163 can move towards the point of control at 11069. Price surpassing the major resistance at 11257 can further move towards the zone of 11350 and 11444. Price violating the point of control at 11069 can find minor support in the zone of 10975 and major support in the zone of 10882. Price breaking below the major support can move much lower towards the zone of 10788 and 10694. Disclaimer All trade ideas published here are for educational purpose only. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:NIFTY
by VanijyamShala
4
Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook – 08.08.2020Price Action Analysis: On a weekly time frame price action in the current week formed a Bullish SKR price bar pattern to final close at 21754. In the previous week price action resulted into a down bar. With the start of the week price violated the low of the previous week and recorded a low at 21031. Throughout the current week the low of first day of the week was protected and finally managed to close at 21754 above the preceding week close at 21640. The important aspect to keep in mind is that the current week price bar is indeed a down bar but the close of the current bar closing above the previous close makes it a Bullish SKR price bar. The close of the current price bar is in the upper one third of the range indicating bulls in control. The price bar has a smaller body (210) compared to the wick ((695) both upper and lower wick combined) which raises a question about the extent of participation. The length of the lower wick (513) is 2.81 times of the upper wick (183). The buying pressure of the current week (722) is 3.9 times that of weekly selling pressure (183). The position of close, small body, larger lower wick small lower wick, buying and selling pressure indicates a possible turnaround in the existing direction of price. The turnaround will be confirmed only when price first breaks the high (21937) of Bullish SKR without violating the low (21031). Price breaking the low of Bullish SKR invalidates the Bullish expectation. On a daily time frame price action formed an Inside bar on Friday. The prior bar, the bar before the Inside Bar, is referred to as the “Mother Bar”. With the completion of an Inside Bar one can observe that price neither surpassed the high of mother bar nor violated the low of the preceding bar indicating indecision. Inside Bar also indicate that the prevailing momentum has dissipated because buyers and sellers are equally matched and have no conviction. An Inside Bar usually represents market indecision. In terms of demand and supply, an Inside Bar indicates that, demand and supply are in state of equilibrium and hence a period of consolidation. With an Inside Bar we neither have a bullish nor a bearish expectation and hence form a neutral expectation. If price surpasses and close above the high of the mother bar then we form a Bullish expectation and if price breaks and close below the low of mother bar then we form a Bearish expectation. With this detailed price action analysis let’s just follow the foot prints of price. For trading decision one need to wait for a suitable Low Risk High Probability trade opportunities. The current weekly volatility decreased to 2.5 compared to the previous weekly volatility of 3.6. The probable weekly returns for the upcoming week is 545 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 227 points. Stock Market Seasonality August 8 marks a very important date according to seasonality. The day is considered as a minor seasonal date which is halfway between the major seasonal levels of June 22 and September 23. On this day price action formed an Inside Bar and hence the high and low of the mother bar will be of utmost importance in determining the future price action. Trade Plan The key level of the existing trend is at 21034 and the critical level at 21027. The point of control of Bank Nifty spot for the upcoming week is in the zone of 21484. Currently price is trading above the minor resistance zone at 21710. Price staying above the minor resistance zone of 21710 can move towards the major resistance zone at 21937. Price slipping below the minor resistance at 21710 can move towards the point of control at 21484. Price surpassing the major resistance zone can further move towards the zone of 22163 and 22389. Price below the point of control at 21484 can find minor support in the zone of 21258 and major support in the zone of 21032. Price breaking below the major support zone can move lower towards the zone of 20805 and 20579. Disclaimer All investment ideas published are for educational purpose only. All investments and trading decisions involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by VanijyamShala
A Consolidation Price Bar Pattern in NiftyPrice action during the week yet again formed a new high at 11461 and finally closed at 11372. Price action had formed a Bearish Single Key reversal bar in the last week. Due to a bearish single key reversal price we had formed a bearish expectation, only on price breaking the low of the bearish single key reversal bar. But in the current week price invalidated the bearish expectation by making a new high at 11461 without breaking the low at 11111. Weekly Price Action Analysis Weekly Price Bar Structure: Price Action formed an Up Bar by making a new high at 11461 and a higher low at 11144. Price bar Range: The range of the current week price bar is 316 compared to the previous week range of 262 which makes the current week price bar a wide ranged price bar. Wide ranged price bars represent active markets, where the price movement is more than the normal indicating increased volatility. Position of Close: The position of close is in the upper one third of the range indicating buyers in control. Although the close (11372) is in the upper one third of price bar range, the current close is marginally below the previous high (11374). Body Size: The size of body (123) is lesser than the wick ((193) both upper and lower wick combined). The current price bar is indeed a Bullish price bar but with a short body indicating weak bullishness as a result of lack of strength, due to reduced commitment from buyers. Since the body size is lesser than the wick a detailed analysis of wick, buying and selling pressure is required to determine who is in control? Buyers or sellers and to what extent? Wick Size: Analysis of wick is required only when the size of the wick is greater than body. The size of upper wick is 89 and the size of lower wick is 104 and hence a large lower wick compared to the upper wick. The lower wick is just 1.1 times the size of upper wick indicating Indecision hence a further analysis of buying and selling pressure is required. Buying and Selling Pressure: The current price action depicts that buying pressure (227) is greater than selling pressure (89). Buying pressure is 2.5 times of the buying pressure indicating buyers in control. The strength is usually expressed in 3 degrees as Bullish, Strong Bullish, and Very Strong Bullish.The strength of the current price bar is Bullish. Expectation and Confirmation: The close suggests a bullish expectation, but a short body indicates Weak Bullishness as result of lack of strength due to reduced commitment from buyers. Further analysis of wicks indicate Indecision because buyers and sellers are equally matched and have no conviction. With the current price action analysis we form a cautious Neutral Expectation. Daily Price Action Analysis Price action on a daily time frame is pretty interesting. • On Monday price formed an Inside Bar. With an Inside bar the low of the prior week was protected. The inside bar also displayed the characteristics of Bullish Pin Bar. • On Tuesday price action formed an Up Bar by surpassing the previous high at 11374. The sentiment of the Up Bar was Strong Bullish. • On Wednesday price witnessed a Gap Up opening indicating strength. But, right from the opening sellers took control and pushed the price towards low and finally to form an Open Close Reversal price bar. With an OCR price bar we formed a bearish expectation and waited for a confirmation. • On Thursday price witnessed a Gap Down opening indicating weakness. The price bar of Thursday formed a bearish bar with the close in the lower one third of the range indicating sellers in control. Price breaking the low of the current price bar would have confirmed the bearish expectation, • On Friday again price witnessed a Gap Up Opening indicating strength but, again price action witnessed rejection and bears over took the control from bulls. The characteristic of Friday’s price bar structure almost resembles the price bar structure of Wednesday. With two gaps in the opposite direction price action formed islands. The gaps in the opposite direction followed by price rejection indicates a tug of war between the bulls and bears indicating no group in control. The price action from Tuesday to Friday has formed a consolidation price bar pattern LEDGE. Does a Ledge indicate a DISTRIBUTION phase? Only the time will confirm! Expectation and Confirmation: With a consolidation pattern on a daily time frame we form a Neutral expectation and will wait for a valid breakout form the range. In the current situation price action can result into following 3 scenarios: Scenario 1:If price continues to trade within the upper resistance zone of 11461 and lower support zone of 11253 we continue with a Neutral Expectation. Scenario 2:If price breaks the high of the consolidation pattern then we form a bullish expectation. The bar which breaks the high and closes above the high of consolidation pattern will be referred as the “Bullish Trigger Bar”. After a bullish trigger bar, only when price surpasses the high of trigger bar the bullish expectation will be confirmed. Scenario 3: If price breaks the low of consolidation pattern we form a bearish expectation. The bar which breaks the low and closes below the low of consolidation pattern will be referred as referred as the “Bearish Trigger Bar. After the completion of a bearish trigger bar, only when price breaks the low of trigger bar the bearish expectation will be confirmed. Key Levels and Weekly Volatility With price making a new high the key level of the current trend is at 11111 and critical level at 10882. The current weekly volatility remains unchanged at 1.1 compared to previous weekly volatility of 1.1. The probable weekly returns is of 125 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 79 points. Trade Plan 1. With a Neutral Expectation wait for a Bullish or a Bearish Trigger bar to form. 2. When we have a Bullish Trigger bar in place we can form a Bullish Expectation. Only when price surpasses the high of the Bullish Trigger Bar then the bullish expectation will be confirmed. With a confirmed Bullish expectation, a measured move towards 11565, 11669 and 11773 can be expected. 3.When we have a Bearish Trigger bar in place we form a Bearish Expectation. Only when price breaks the low of the Bearish Trigger Bar then the Bearish expectation will be confirmed. With a confirmed Bearish expectation, a measured move towards 11149, 11045 and 10943 can be expected. Disclaimer All trade ideas published here are for educational purpose only. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:NIFTY
by VanijyamShala
6
Nifty50 & Nifty500 Hits Critical Demand Zone: Ready for Bounce?Indian stock market has been in a downward for over a month, Let’s dive into the technical setups and explore potential scenarios. 🔥 Demand Zone Insight: Drop-Base-Rally (DBR) at Play On Friday, Nifty 50 entered a demand zone, specifically a Drop-Base-Rally (DBR) zone — an area often indicating unfilled orders from institutional buyers. In strong markets, simply entering the zone could signal a buying opportunity. However, since the broader trend has been downward, it’s more prudent to look for confirmation. Today, Nifty 50 delivered that confirmation entry by forming a bullish candle within this demand zone, suggesting that the price may now have the support it needs to reverse direction. This type of entry confirms that buyers are stepping in, providing traders a more reliable basis to consider potential setups. 📊 Nifty 500: Inside Bar as Additional Confirmation For traders who prefer further confirmation, the Nifty 500 presents an interesting setup. After hitting a key support level last Friday, the index printed a bearish candle (-1.27%) followed by a small, 0.67% bullish candle today — a formation known as an inside bar . 🛠️ Trading the Inside Bar: Breakout Signals An inside bar indicates price consolidation and often precedes a breakout. By waiting for this breakout, traders can add another layer of confirmation before entering. Bullish Breakout : A price rise above today’s high could signal a potential reversal and strengthen bullish momentum. Bearish Continuation : If the price falls below today’s low, we may see the downtrend continue. ⚠️ Final Thoughts 📉 Nifty 50’s demand zone and today’s bullish candle hint at an early sign of a potential reversal. However, with the daily trend still pointing downward, a more cautious approach may be wise. Waiting for additional confirmation through an inside bar breakout in Nifty 500 could provide stronger validation. If tomorrow Nifty 500 breaks above today’s high, this would confirm the inside bar breakout, offering a clearer reversal signal and a green light to plan buy entries in selected stocks based on your setups. Conversely, if Nifty 500 breaks below today’s low, it may indicate a continuation of the downtrend. Lastly, Thank you for your support, your likes & comments. "Successful trading is the art of waiting for the perfect moment." 📈 This analysis is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as a trading or investment recommendation. Please note, I am not a SEBI-registered analyst.
NSE:CNX500
by AfnanTAjuddin
1
ESCORTS - SHORT - Fakey Pattern ESCORTS couple of days before had a false breakout for inside bar The Fakey pattern can be best be described as a “false-breakout from an inside bar pattern”. The Fakey pattern always starts with an inside bar pattern. When price initially breaks out from the inside bar pattern but then quickly reverses, creating a false-break, and closes back within the range of the mother bar or inside bar, we have a fakey pattern. source Trade Setup on charts I have kept the SL to min - but people can use 50% of last bar as SL Happy Trading
NSE:ESCORTSShort
by msk_analysis
Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook – 25.07.2020Price Action Analysis Price recorded a new high at 23212 after the previous week down bar and finally managed to close at 22662 in the form of an up bar. An up bar after a down bar formed a significant weekly higher swing low at 21027. The current week price bar structure, an up bar is indeed a bullish bar in nature but, with a close in the middle one third of the range. The size of the body is lesser than that of the wick (both upper and lower wick combined). The size of the upper wick is 4.6 times of the lower wick indicating a possible turnaround of the existing direction of price. The confirmation of the turnaround comes only when price breaks the low of the current bullish bar at 22187. The weekly buying pressure (474) is marginally less than weekly selling pressure (549). Even though the weekly bar is an up bar with a higher low and higher high, the characteristics of close, body, wicks, buying and selling pressure indicate weak bullishness which is due to lack of strength as result of reduced commitment from buyers. On Monday price witnessed a gap up opening at 22307. A second gap up occurred on Tuesday. On Wednesday price again opened with a visible gap up and recorded a high 23212 and formed an open close reversal price bar with the close in the middle one third of the range indicating indecision. On Thursday price neither broke the high nor the low of the open close reversal price bar. With the high and low of the prior day intact price formed an inside bar. On Friday price broke the low of the mother bar and formed a trigger bar for the inside bar. With a trigger bar in place price formed a swing high at 23212. The trigger bar is indeed a bearish bar but with the close in the middle one third of the range indicating indecision. The most important aspect to observe is that price managed to break the low of the mother bar but price closed within the range of the mother bar. With a bearish trigger to the inside bar we form a bearish expectation keeping in mind the sentiment of the trigger bar. The bearish expectation will be confirmed only when price breaks the low of trigger bar at 22417 and a realistic price zone of 22369. The current weekly volatility decreased to 4 compared to the previous weekly volatility of 5.5. The probable weekly returns is 928 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 256 points. Trade Plan The key level of the existing trend is at 21027 and the critical level at 20926. The point of control of Bank Nifty spot for the upcoming week is in the zone of 22700. Price staying above the point of control can find minor resistance in the zone of 22956 and major resistance in the zone of 23212. Price surpassing the major resistance zone can further move towards the zone of 23468 and 23724. Price below the point of control at 22700 can find minor support in the zone of 22443 and major support in the zone of 22187. Price breaking below the major support zone can move lower towards the zone of 21931 and 21676. Disclaimer All investment ideas published are for educational purpose only. All investments and trading decisions involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by VanijyamShala
8
Kotak Mahindra bank and the recent gap up Hi, trying to find the reason of such a nice gap up opening and trying to give future possibilities KMB is moving inside a 12M inside bar , a monthly inside bar and a monthly inside bar "BO" zone, at the start of the year stock took support at the low of the 12M inside bar, and the monthly inside bar, and started upward journey, as in 12M IB range stock opened below the parent and child opening level so a negative setup which need to be saved any how, price made good stride during the progress and find a 12M resistance level, u will always find out that the price mostly avoid strong levels and try to bypass by gap up or gap down opening also there was a MACD crossover in weekly tf which resulted in this movement, whenever price goes for MAs/ MACDs closeup in weekly or monthly tf, it generates such kind of move (in below graphics) as MA closeup is still pending we can see some good move in the stock but now under some important levels (in below graphic) hope u will like the analysis thanks
NSE:KOTAKBANK
by omvats1
1
INDUS TOWERDate 22.09.2024 Indus Tower Timeframe : Day chart Remarks : 1 Formed a strong support trendline since December 2023 which was re-tested by 4 times & had sharp bounce from there 2 On recent closing formed Inside Bar after long selling candle. 3 At RSI it is in Oversold region. 4 Trade set-up will be Inside bar, High-Low break 5 If breaks out the Inside Bar high then Target 1 = 61% of Fibonacci, Target 2 = 50% of Fibonacci & Target 3 = 50% of Consolidation zone 6 If breaks down then, it will break the cloud followed by Target 1 = 365 & then will approach support trendline, if breaks support trendline as then sell/short entry Target = 200 ema 7 Being at oversold & inside bar looks like will break upwards. Today's news which is mentioned below : (I) Vodafone Idea has concluded a mega $3.6 billion (Rs 300 billion) deal with Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung, for supply of network equipment over a period of three years (II) Vodafone Idea, holds a 21.5% stake in Indus Towers, India's largest mobile tower installation company (III) Government of India has stake in Vodafone Idea of 23.8% as of September 2024 Indus Towers Recent Performance : Profit Growth = 195.65 % ROE = 25.08 % ROCE = 34.91% Sales Qtr Rs = 7383 Cr PAT 12M Rs = 6614.20 Cr P/E = 15.48 Operating Margin = 60 % (approx) FII = 23 % (approx) DII = 17% (approx) Hence, quite decent company looking at business, clients, company's physical assets & cash flows. Regards, Ankur Singh
NSE:INDUSTOWER
by AnkurSingh
BEML Multi year breakout.Stock Consolidation since May 2006, between Rs 1800 & Rs 271. Strong volumes after 2018 indicate there is strong accumulation is complete. In March 21 Stock gave breakout of the accumulation zone. Current attempt to breach life high will be 4th attempt. Higher number of attempts means resistance is weakening. We may see a breakout soon. On lower time frame Stock has formed a ascending triangle and also a inside bar below the resistence. Inside bar is small bodied red candles of low between 2 high volume green candles. Inside bar increases chances of breakout. ( Below are the some examples of inside bars in links attached )
NSE:BEMLLong
by varadtambolkar
BANKNIFTY - Trade setup - Fresh Long EntryBankNifty has been forming inside bars in the daily time frame from the last couple of trading sessions inside bars near a resistance zone are signs for reversals, interestingly BNF is not in any resistance zone as such. so what may be the possible reason for inside bars ?- may be less volume due to holiday season, may be a trade-setup by option writers to earn premium over an extended weekend. whatever be the case - BNF is yet to complete its unfinished business to touch the all-time high in this rally. This is for the ones who are not already long in BNF and looking for a fresh entry double inside bars not near resistance zones usually give a fake breakout leading to retracement. This matches well with 30500-30700 support zone Play would be Wait till BNF nears 30500-30700 zone and the buy CE or Future If BNF breaches 30500 and stays below for some time. Exit as this hypothesis would be deemed wrong in that case. A happy new year and Happy Trading MSK Refer to some other interesting ideas of mine
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by msk_analysis
EIH-Will it break or fall back to support?EIH Limited has recently exhibited multiple inside bar patterns on its daily chart. An inside bar occurs when a candlestick's price range is entirely contained within the range of the preceding bar, signaling market consolidation and potential for a significant price movement. The presence of multiple inside bars suggests a period of low volatility, often preceding substantial breakouts. Consider monitoring EIH's price action closely, as a decisive move beyond the mother bar's range could indicate the next directional trend. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
NSE:EIHOTEL
by sandeepbalachandran
BNF ObservationMonthly Bar - Current Month showing sign of an inside bar as on April 9th. Weekly Bar - We had an inside Bar last week and this week there is an upward breakout from the inside bare. Daily Bar- HH (Higher High) trend, we had a pullback at 17143 and now if we break 21462 I have drawn a rectangle box, which can act as a consolidation zone. Breakout and continuation above 21462 one can expect those emotional gaps down that we had in the downward move. Failing to breakout can pressure further downward move or consolidating act. I consider this as an emotional downward move with Multiple emotional gap down days. The actual impact of financial recovery is unprecedented, it may as well as have strong bull run from here. Interestingly this correction was not related to an economic crisis per se. Said that the actual impact of the economy and recovery phase is still unclear. The disruptive crisis looks like the new paradigm of living going forward.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Cheena
2
Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook – 11.07.2020Price Action Analysis: Nifty continued to edge higher and is now less than 1% away from its 200-DMA. Nifty advanced for the fourth consecutive week and formed an up bar on a weekly time frame. Price witnessed a gap up opening on Monday and recorded a new high at 10848 and finally closed at 10768. The range of the current week (171) has decreased by almost 50% when compared with the previous week range (408) indicating dead market which moved little and covered less ground per unit time. The close of the current week is in the middle one-third of the range indicating indecision. The weekly price bar with a short body is indeed a bullish bar, but with weak bullishness indicating lack of strength due to reduced commitment from traders. On a daily time frame price formed a bearish outside bar on Wednesday with higher volume compared to the previous day. With a bearish outside we formed a bearish expectation, but the expectation remains muted with the formation of double inside bar. Price neither breaking the low or the high of the outside bar is the reason behind the muted bearish expectation. The bearish expectation will be confirmed only on when price break and close below the low of the outside bar. The bearish expectation will be invalidated if price doesn’t break the low of the outside bar, instead price surpasses the high of the outside bar. There is a price bar pattern variation when Nifty Spot and Nifty July futures is compared. Nifty spot formed a double inside bar by the end of the week whereas, Nifty Futures recorded a new high on Thursday and finally closed the week with a down bar with the formation of a swing high. The current weekly volatility decreased to 2.6 compared to previous weekly volatility of 3.6. The probable weekly returns is of 282 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 43 points. Trade Plan The key level of the existing trend is at 10194 and the critical level at 9544. The point of control of Nifty Spot for the upcoming week is in the zone of 10763.Price staying above the point of control can find minor resistance in the zone of 10806 and major resistance in the zone of 10848. Price surpassing the previous major resistance can further move towards the zone of 10891 and 10933. Price breaking point of control can find minor support in the zone of 10719 and major support in the zone of 10677. Price breaking below the major support can move lower towards the zone of 10677 and 10634. Disclaimer All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:NIFTY
by VanijyamShala
2
Nifty Monthly Technical and Seasonality Outlook - AugustPrice Action Analysis: Nifty recorded an all-time high at 12431 in the month of January 2020. From the all-time high price declined and recorded a new low at 7511. From the low of 7511 price retraced in three leg up move with a swing high at 9889, swing low at 8806 and to finally close at 11073. The question in the mind of most traders is that, will this up move continue further or will we see a change in price direction? In order to understand the true nature of price let’s analyze the foot prints of price. On a monthly time frame, price formed an Inside Bar in the month of April. With an Inside Bar in place, the price bar of March is considered as the Mother Bar with a high at 11433 and low of 7511. In the month of July, price recorded a high at 11342 and closed at 11073. Even though price recorded a new high in the current month, the monthly close is below the January quarter range resistance (11201) and the March quarter resistance (11178). Price rise in the current month is on low volumes compared to the previous month volume. The first sign of further up move will be only when price manages to break above the monthly high at 11342. The confirmation for the continuation of up move will be only when price breaks and closes above the mother bar high at 11433. With a monthly and weekly close falling in line price formed a weekly Bearish SKR price bar. (For further detailed insights you will have to wait for the weekly technical outlook which will be published by 02.08.2020) The current month volatility of Nifty is at 10.7 and the annual volatility at 37.3.The probable monthly returns is of 1193 points from the monthly close, with a measured move in increments of 260 points. Stock Market Seasonality Seasons are caused by the fact that the Earth is tilted on its axis by 23.5°. With seasons we have Equinox and Solstice. A solstice is the point during the Earth's orbit around the sun at which the sun is at its greatest distance from the equator, while during an equinox, it's at the closest distance from the equator. The summer solstice occurred in June and the autumnal equinox is due in the month of September. With the end of summer solstice we derive the semiannual seasonality levels. The price levels of 10531 acts as the semiannual seasonality level for Nifty. The semiannual seasonality levels coincides with the monthly minor support. Price action near the zone of semiannual seasonality will be of utmost importance in determining the future direction of price which will be valid till the end of next winter solstice. Trade Plan The point of control of Nifty Spot for the month of August is in the zone of 11821. Currently price is hovering around the minor resistance zone at 11081. Price slipping below the minor resistance zone and witnessing a valid break can move towards the point of control at 10821. Price staying above the minor resistance zone can move towards the major resistance zone at 11342. Price surpassing the major resistance can move towards the zone of 11602 and 11863. Price breaking point of control at 10821 can find minor support in the zone of 10561 and major support in the zone of 10299. Price breaking below the major support can move lower towards the zone of 10039 and 9778. Disclaimer All trade ideas published are for educational purpose only. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:NIFTY
by VanijyamShala
3
C98/USDT - Potential Correction within a Bearish Context ?Currently, the C98/USDT pair is displaying some intriguing dynamics that warrant attention. Resistance Area - 0.1962 to 0.2000: The price of C98/USDT has been contending with a notable resistance zone, ranging from 0.1962 to 0.2000. This area has historically proven to be a pivotal juncture, where the bulls and bears engage in a battle for control. Traders and investors should closely monitor price movements in this range, as a breakout above it could signal a potential uptrend, while a failure to breach it might indicate prolonged consolidation or even a reversal. Anticipated Correction - 0.1635 to 0.1600: With the price currently hovering near resistance, a retracement to the support zone of 0.1635 to 0.1600 seems plausible. Such corrections are not uncommon after prolonged bullish moves, as they offer an opportunity for the market to recalibrate and regain momentum. **Bearish Inside Bar Formation - 9-Hour Timeframe:** Delving into the finer details, the 9-hour timeframe reveals a noteworthy development - the emergence of a bearish inside bar pattern. This pattern forms when the high and low of the current candle fall within the high and low of the previous candle. In conclusion, the C98/USDT pair is at a critical juncture, with the resistance area of 0.1962 to 0.2000 acting as a focal point. A correction towards the support zone of 0.1635 to 0.1600 could provide an opportunity for traders to enter or add to their positions. The emergence of a bearish inside bar pattern on the 9-hour timeframe adds another layer of caution, urging traders to exercise prudence. It's advisable to stay updated and keep an eye on the evolving price action to make well-informed trading decisions.
Short
by Un_trade